Making Predictions with Moderate Uncertainty Results in More Happiness

Abstract

Predicting outcomes under high uncertainty has been reported to be less enjoyable than that under low uncertainty. Our results slightly differ from those of other studies. We recruited 180 participants and executed analysis of variance for our data analysis. The results indicated that the participants enjoyed themselves more on average when uncertainty was moderate compared with when it was high or low. Specifically, this study discovered that under high uncertainty, making predictions reduced enjoyment, with enjoyment being maximized under a moderate level of uncertainty. When making decisions, people often dislike taking risks because they wish to reduce their losses. Nonetheless, we demonstrated that a moderate degree of uncertainty is enjoyable for consumers, and this finding suggests that marketers can create environments with moderate but controlled risk to increase consumers’ enjoyment and, in turn, increase revenue.