The Establishment and Analysis of Population Growth Forecasting Model Based on Big Data

Abstract

In view of the acceleration of the aging process in population development process of China the continuous increase in the sex ratio of the birth population, and the new characteristics of the urbanization of the rural population, based on the LESLIE matrix, we focus on the migration between urban and rural areas and the change in the proportion of female population to China. The impact of population growth has been improved twice to establish a difference equation model that is easy for computers to solve, and predicts China's population growth for the next 45 years after 2005. Then, using the parameter setting method of time period, the difference equation model was improved again. Then, the medium- and short-term prediction of the difference equation model is tested using the equal-dimensional gray system forecasting method, and the model is used to forecast from 2001 to 2005 based on the basic population data in 2001, and the forecast results are tested using actual data.We divide the forecast interval into three intervals from 2006 to 2020, 2021 to 2035, and 2036 to 2050 to quantify the short-term, medium-term, and long-term. By adjusting the relevant parameters and input conditions in the model, the effects of male-female sex ratio, aging and rural population urbanization on my country's population growth were quantitatively analyzed. The forecast results show that in the short term, China’s birth sex ratio has not changed significantly and will remain basically unchanged in the short term. The aging process has increased by 8 percentage points in 15 years, and the population dependency ratio continues to increase, which will increase China's population pressure, the rural population's urbanization level is progressing slowly; in the medium term, the total population sex ratio will remain between 1 and 1.1, the aging process will increase linearly, and the rural population's urbanization level will continue to develop; In the long run, the aging process will experience a peak platform for the aging population from 2035 to 2045. The proportion of the aging population is above 0.3. The number of women of childbearing age continues to decline. The total population will reach a peak of 1.405 billion in 2023.