Simulation of Carbon Emission System and Optimization of Emission Reduction Path for Textile Industry Based on System Dynamics

Abstract

In recent years, governments have attached great importance to global climate change. Textile industry, as a pillar industry of China's national economy, is an important emission source of greenhouse gases, whose development model needs to be changed from extensive to low-carbon development, which is of great significance for reducing carbon emissions. In this paper, firstly, the path of energy saving and emission reduction in textile industry is systematically analyzed and optimized by using the theory of system dynamics. Then, the carbon emission system in textile industry is divided into four subsystems: environment, energy, economy and innovation. Next, according to the causal relationship of variables among the systems, the system dynamics model of carbon emission in textile industry is constructed and simulated. Finally, four scenarios of low scenario, benchmark scenario, high scenario and high scenario are set up respectively. The simulation analysis of technology innovation scenario shows that low-carbon technology innovation has obvious inhibition effect on carbon dioxide emissions from textiles; Simulation analysis of industrial scale control scenario shows that increasing the proportion of newly added fixed assets will significantly increase the carbon dioxide emissions of the textile industry, which requires a good balance between economic benefits and environmental protection; The simulation of government policy regulation scenario shows that the greater the government's implementation of energy-saving and emission-reduction policies, the more effective the carbon emission reduction in the textile industry will be; Under the integrated scenario, the carbon emission in 2030 is the lowest in all scenarios, and the effect of emission reduction is the most obvious. Therefore, it is also the optimal path to achieve carbon emission reduction in the textile industry.