Predicting the Impact of Temperature Changes in the North Atlantic Ocean on Fish Migration and Fishery Economy based on the ARIMA Model

  • Yihang Wang, Lin Fan, Zeduo Zou, Wei Zhao, Yong Zhao, Chongyang Zhang, Yongjian Feng

Abstract

As the global climate warms, changes in sea temperature around Scotland in the North Atlantic have affected the migration and migration of organisms in the marine ecosystem. Herring and mackerel have made important contributions to Scotland's fishery economy. Therefore, in the context of global climate change, it is of value to study how changes in sea temperature affect the migration of fish in marine ecosystems and their impact on human production and life. In this paper, two fishes, herring and mackerel in the Scottish Sea, are used as examples. In the study, the ARIMA (1,1,0) model is used to predict changes in ocean temperature. And on this basis, according to the data of fish migration speed and ocean temperature, it is determined that temperature gradient is the main factor affecting migration speed and direction, and the corresponding empirical equation is established to determine the influence of temperature on fish migration. By using the bootstrap method to simulate the migration of fish samples, determine the most likely location of the fish. Then, based on the distribution of fish stocks and related economic principles, a real-time profit evaluation model was established for the fishery company, and the parameters involved were estimated by introducing actual management data. After analyzing the robustness and sensitivity of the model, based on the 10,000 fish migration samples generated by the fish migration prediction model, the profitability changes of the fishery companies were simulated, and the impact of changes in ocean temperature on the Scottish fishery economy was predicted. This study provides valuable insights on how changes in sea temperature around Scotland in the North Atlantic affect the fish and fishery economy in marine ecosystems in the context of global climate change.

Published
2020-12-01
How to Cite
Yihang Wang, Lin Fan, Zeduo Zou, Wei Zhao, Yong Zhao, Chongyang Zhang, Yongjian Feng. (2020). Predicting the Impact of Temperature Changes in the North Atlantic Ocean on Fish Migration and Fishery Economy based on the ARIMA Model. Design Engineering, 453 - 474. https://doi.org/10.17762/de.vi.1094
Section
Articles